In accordance with the UK Corporate Governance Code (the 'Code'), the directors have assessed the viability of the Group over an appropriate time period, taking into account the current position, future prospects and a robust assessment of the potential impact of the principal risks and uncertainties on our business model. Based on this assessment, the directors have concluded that they have a reasonable expectation that the Group will be able to continue in operation and meet its liabilities as they fall due over the period to 28 March 2026.
Assessment period
The directors have determined that a three-year period, ending on 28 March 2026, is an appropriate period over which to make the assessment and provide their viability statement. The three-year period aligns with that used for the Group's annual strategic planning process and gives good visibility of contracted future work and our pipeline. The majority of the Group's workload falls within three years as the most significant construction contracts follow an execution period which is normally less than this time frame, which in turn enables more accurate forecasting. In making their assessment, the directors took account of the Group's strategy, strong financial position, forward order book of £510m, encouraging pipeline of opportunities, recent and planned investments and the availability and covenants associated with our main committed bank facilities which mature in December 2026.
Risk assessment
The directors have assessed the Group's viability in conjunction with their evaluation of going concern. For the going concern assessment, which covers a period of at least 12 months from the date of signing the financial statements, we have modelled a 'base case' scenario, which uses the Group's budgeted position, and a highly pessimistic 'severe but plausible' scenario, being the combined impact on the 'base case' of securing only 25 per cent of budgeted uncontracted orders for the next 12 months, one-off contract losses, a deterioration of market conditions and other downside factors.
Given the continued strong performance of the Group in FY23, in the face of some challenging market conditions, this downside scenario is only being modelled to 'stress test' our strong financial position and demonstrate the considerable headroom that the Group has in its covenants and borrowing facilities.
The directors have also assessed the potential financial and operational impact throughout the viability assessment period of other downside scenarios resulting from the crystallisation of one or more of the principal risks described in the annual report (see How we Manage Risks) that are relevant to the industry sector in which the Group operates. The assessed risks, for which the impacts were applied, include supply chain risks (and the reliance on key suppliers), changes in the commercial and market environment, mispricing a contract (at tender), the failure to mitigate onerous contract terms, business disruption caused by a cyber-attack, a prolonged period of industrial action, or climate change, and the impact of a serious health and safety incident. The impact of these were modelled through a reduction in revenue and operating margin of 25 per cent, a deterioration in working capital (the extension of customer payment terms by one month/retraction of supplier payments terms by one month), a period of business interruption (two months with no factory production or site activity) and a significant one-off event resulting in a cost to the Group of £20m.
Our assessment also included modelling the financial impact of a 'severe but plausible' scenario (consistent with the going concern assessment), where the impact of certain risks and uncertainties were applied in combination. The range of scenarios tested was considered in detail by the directors, taking into account the probability of occurrence and the effectiveness of any likely mitigation actions, including adjustments to our strategic plan and the reduction of any non-essential or committed capital expenditure, operating expenditure, bonuses and dividend payments.
Based on the results of this analysis, there are no individual or combination of plausible scenarios that are considered to have a material impact on the Group's viability. The directors have a reasonable expectation that the Group will be able to continue in operation and meet its liabilities as they fall due over the three-year assessment period.